China and India have fewer people than the U.N. thinks

COMMENTARY / World

China and India have fewer people than the U.N. thinks

A series of population overestimations raises questions over the body’s credibility

To deal with the challenges of aging global populations, the U.N. must undertake significant reforms of its costly, inefficient and often inaccurate demographic bodies.? | REUTERS

By Yi Fuxian
Project Syndicate

Jun 4, 2023

MADISON, WISCONSIN – In April, the United Nations estimated that India as the world’s most populous country. While the announcement received a great deal of media attention, India’s 2024 census will likely reveal that the U.N.’s projections have been vastly overestimated.

According to India’s most recent census data, the country’s population stood at in 2001 and in 2011. The U.N.’s 2022 (WPP) report, however, put these figures at 1.08 billion and 1.26 billion, respectively. Moreover, India’s National Family Health Survey indicated a in 2017-19, in contrast to the WPP’s estimate of 2.16.

At the 1974 U.N. population conference in Bucharest, India’s then-Minister for Health and Family Planning, Karan Singh, , “Development is the best contraceptive.” While it is often assumed that income per capita is directly correlated with fertility, declining fertility rates are primarily driven by improvements in health and education, along with the wider availability of contraceptives. This trend is evident in India, where the fertility rate has in tandem with and .