MADISON, WISCONSIN ¨C China¡¯s population decline, which the Chinese government in January, has led many observers to wonder if the country¡¯s current demographic trends threaten its stability.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China¡¯s population shrank last year for the first time in 60 years, nine years earlier than government projections had anticipated. The (births per woman) fell to 1.0-1.1, well below the . Most notably, the number of births dropped sharply to , the , despite China¡¯s shift to a two-child policy in 2016.
But this sharp drop in the number of births is an illusion caused by a gross exaggeration of pre-2020 numbers. For example, a from 2016 showed a fertility rate of 1.25 and only 13 million births, which was later inflated to . Similarly, the United Nations¡¯ World Population Prospects report, typically regarded as a reliable source for estimates and projections of Chinese demographic trends, is wrong every time, without exception. The suggests that China¡¯s population began to decline last year (10 years earlier than its 2019 projection), whereas I estimate that the . The latest WPP also predicted that China¡¯s population would fall to 767 million in 2100, far below its earlier forecast of 1.065 billion.
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