In the past two years, predictions of the timing of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan have proliferated, ranging from the near future to 2049, the centenary of the People¡¯s Republic of China and the target year for the ¡°great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.¡±
It is implied that the annexation of Taiwan, which Beijing prefers to think of as ¡°reunification,¡± must occur to consummate the middle kingdom¡¯s restoration.
Four-star U.S. Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan became the latest heavyweight to weigh in on the issue when a memo he prepared leaked in late January. He wrote of a gut feeling ¡°that we will fight in 2025,¡± though he emphasized, ¡°I hope I am wrong.¡± Minihan seems to expect political tumult ahead ¡ª the memo mentioned ¡°a distracted America¡± ¡ª that could provide China with a window of opportunity to attack Taiwan. Both the U.S. and Taiwan will hold presidential elections in 2024.
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