Sitting on the fence is uncomfortable. Faced with a geopolitical fight that is both unthinkably brutal and sprawling in its consequences, Beijing officials are finding that such a posture might also, in the long run, be impossible.
When President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, he appears to have shocked Chinese officialdom along with the rest of the world. It¡¯s difficult to know for sure whether China¡¯s leader Xi Jinping was aware of the plans, but spokespeople and state media were certainly left scrambling to manage the message. They struggled to balance a vaunted ideological alignment with an act of aggression that violates the principles of territorial integrity and noninterference that underpin Chinese diplomacy. That¡¯s before considering China¡¯s ties to Ukraine and Eastern Europe more widely ¡ª an important stretch of Beijing¡¯s Belt and Road initiative to extend trade ties and influence.
The result has been an exercise in cognitive dissonance, with a narrative that accepts Moscow¡¯s security concerns, blames the West for creating the problem, refuses to refer to a ¡°war¡± or ¡°invasion¡± and bemoans unprecedented punishment ¡ª all key Russian talking points ¡ª but also affirms Ukraine¡¯s sovereignty and tries to stay out of the economic firing line. It has called on ¡°both sides¡± to de-escalate. There has been no direct condemnation of Russia¡¯s invasion.
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