With oil galloping closer to $100 a barrel, who¡¯s going to come to the rescue?
Output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries remains stuck around 5 million barrels a day below peak levels, constrained by weak production from Angola, Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela. Russian crude is still flowing, but it¡¯s hostage to geopolitical tensions over Ukraine.
Meanwhile, U.S. shale producers are still perceived to be licking their wounds from 2020¡¯s lurch into negative oil prices, focused on reassuring shareholders that there will be no repeat of the bonfire of capital they engaged in during the past decade. Take a look at the number of operating rigs out there, and you¡¯d think the recovery had barely started:
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