BERKELEY, California ¨C The wildfire spread of the omicron variant adds a new element of uncertainty to the global economy. But when it comes to emerging markets, the consensus view is that these countries¡¯ prospects remain bright. J.P. Morgan Global Research expects their collective GDP to grow by 4.6% this year, faster than its 2015-2019 trend. S&P Global Ratings is even more bullish, projecting that emerging economies will expand by 4.8%.
Strikingly, these growth figures are virtually identical to the forecasts for 2022 released by the International Monetary Fund in October 2019 ¡ª that is, before the pandemic. It has become a popular trope that COVID changes everything ¡ª or, rather, everything except the outlook for emerging markets.
In fact, there are multiple reasons for worrying that this consensus is too rosy.
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