As Election Day nears, the possibility of a disputed presidential election is worrying a lot of people. You¡¯ve heard the scenarios: An embittered Donald Trump loses but refuses to leave the Oval Office. An embittered Joe Biden loses but refuses to concede. Absentee ballots that arrive after Nov. 3 aren¡¯t counted. Or they are counted. The angry left takes to the streets. The angry right takes to the streets. Lawyers take to the courts.
Whatever goes wrong ¡ª and chances are something will ¡ª we will likely be having an argument over the vote count.
Into the pre-election turmoil comes a useful new analysis from the economists Michael Geruso and Dean Spears of the University of Texas, who study and model presidential elections. Last September, I wrote about an earlier paper in which they argued that inversions ¡ª where one party wins the popular vote and the other the electoral college ¡ª are far more likely than we think.
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