The story of COVID-19 has been pretty bleak, from the scale of the novel coronavirus¡¯s death toll to the pain of draconian lockdowns imposed by, in many cases, unprepared and under-resourced governments.

But several weeks after the tentative lifting of tough stay-at-home restrictions in several major European countries, there are reasons to be optimistic about the risk of a second wave of cases ¡ª with a dose of appropriate caution.

In France, the government is forging ahead with the reopening of bars, restaurants, museums, parks and cross-country travel after the first phase of ¡°deconfinement¡± went much better than expected. The daily increase in cases here averaged around 0.5 percent last week, according to Bloomberg data, and the virus¡¯s basic reproduction rate is below 1, according to the French government and other estimates based on hospitalizations.