LONDON ¨C Sergei Guriev, Russia¡¯s most prominent free market economist, left Moscow in 2013 for Paris, in fear of his liberty. He had publicly supported dissidents, criticized the administration¡¯s policies, was an active and committed liberal, in politics as in economics. He produced, earlier this year, a 21st century equivalent of Niccolo Machiavelli¡¯s ¡°The Prince¡°: a blueprint of how the modern autocrat rules, and remains.

Unlike the Florentine, though, Guriev isn¡¯t recommending a course of action, he¡¯s describing it; and he doesn¡¯t believe it will be good for the state, but ruinous. If he¡¯s right about the nature of Russia¡¯s governance, his country is in for a bad crash. And when Russia in its present condition crashes, the world will shake.

The modern autocrat will often have regular elections (which he always wins), a parliament with an opposition (that isn¡¯t a threat), and most of the institutions of a democratic society, such as a vaguely independent judicial system, ¡°free¡± media and freedom of travel for citizens. Recent examples Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan, the Chinese Communist Party and, of course, Russian President Vladimir Putin.