CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS ¨C The battle for Baiji, site of one of Iraq¡¯s major oil refineries, is heating up again. Since May, Islamic State fighters have been chipping away at the Iraqi government¡¯s control. Now it seems possible that the empty city and the shuttered refinery could fall.
Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi visited the battlefield this week and emphasized the site¡¯s strategic importance to retaking Mosul. What he didn¡¯t say was that Islamic State¡¯s offensive on Baiji is part of its grand strategy to develop domestic sources of revenue that would help make it a functioning state, instead of a would-be state attempting to achieve legitimacy by beheadings and religious fervor.
Oil is crucial to Islamic State¡¯s future success. Even in the Middle East, religion and fear alone aren¡¯t enough to achieve legitimate statehood. The Sunni militant group will have to deliver a baseline of governance and services to persist over time, as its utopian dream fades into boring reality.
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