Cherry blossom season is expected to arrive earlier than usual this year, with blooms forecast to begin in Tokyo on March 19 and many regions across the country expected to see flowering up to a week ahead of historical averages.

According to a forecast released Thursday by Japan Meteorological Corp. (JMC), cherry blossoms are expected to begin flowering first in Nagoya, Aichi Prefecture, on March 17 before those in the Kanto-Koshin, Shikoku and Kyushu regions start blooming.

Major cities are expected to see the following flowering and full-bloom dates:

  • Nagoya: March 17 for flowering (seven days earlier than average) and March 28 for full bloom (five days earlier).
  • Tokyo: March 19 for flowering (five days earlier) and March 28 for full bloom (three days earlier).
  • Fukuoka: March 19 for flowering (three days earlier) and March 29 for full bloom (two days earlier).
  • Kyoto: March 23 for flowering (three days earlier) and April 1 for full bloom (three days earlier).
  • Osaka: March 24 for flowering (three days earlier) and April 1 for full bloom (three days earlier).
  • Sapporo: April 25 for flowering (six days earlier) and April 28 for full bloom (eight days earlier).

JMC estimates flowering and full-bloom dates for Somei Yoshino cherry trees at around 1,000 popular viewing spots nationwide, from Hokkaido to Kagoshima Prefecture.

The timing of cherry blossom flowering is mainly dependent on autumn and winter temperatures and how the weather changes as spring approaches. Buds remain dormant during winter and begin developing once temperatures rise.

According to JMC, temperatures in eastern Japan (including Tokyo) were above average in October and December, near average in November and January, and significantly higher than normal in February. With warmer-than-average weather expected to continue through March, buds are likely to develop quickly after emerging from dormancy, making flowering earlier than usual.

Northern Japan saw near-average temperatures in autumn, colder weather in January and much warmer conditions in February. With temperatures forecast to remain above average from March through April, blossoms there are also expected to bloom earlier than usual as growth accelerates after dormancy.

Western Japan experienced significantly warmer temperatures in October and February, while other winter months were close to average. Although the dormancy-breaking period might have been slightly delayed, warmer weather from February through March is expected to offset the lag and result in flowering dates that are around normal or slightly earlier.

The earlier blooms also reflect a longer-term trend tied to rising temperatures due to climate change. Japan recorded its highest-ever average summer temperature last year, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.