The pandemic didn¡¯t just pull deaths forward in time. In most rich nations, COVID-19 left a lasting increase in mortality that has yet to fully unwind, according to an analysis of data from 34 countries.
The findings challenge a persistent idea that the pandemic mainly hastened the deaths of frail people who would have died soon anyway and result in fewer fatalities in later years. Instead, researchers found that this effect ¡ª often called mortality displacement ¡ª was uncommon and accounted for only a small share of COVID-era losses.
Researchers at the University of Hong Kong (HKU) examined more than 350 million deaths from 2015 through 2024, comparing how many people actually died with how many would have been expected to pass had death rates continued on their pre-COVID path. In most cases, fatalities after the worst of COVID-19 passed didn¡¯t fall enough to make up for earlier losses, undercutting the idea that the toll was largely self-correcting.
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