A possible jump in bear attacks could emerge in 2027 as a result of poor harvest of beechnuts, which typically form part of the animal¡¯s staple diet, a study has found.

A survey conducted by the Akita Prefecture Forestry Research and Training Center showed that a good harvest of beechnuts ¡ª where 200 healthy beechnuts or more are observed per square meter in most of the five regions across the prefecture ¡ª is to be expected next year.

Since good and bad harvests have been alternating since 2021, the research center is forecasting that a poor harvest may be seen in the following year, in 2027.

This year, the harvest was considered to be ¡°extremely poor¡± with fewer than 49 healthy beechnuts per square meter in all five regions. An Environment Ministry report in November also showed that the harvest was extremely poor for four other prefectures in Tohoku ¡ª Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi and Yamagata.

Poor harvests of beechnuts are thought to be a leading factor behind the increase in bear attacks and sightings. When there aren¡¯t enough beechnuts for bears to eat, they are more likely to roam to residential areas looking for food.

Akita Prefecture has continued to record the highest number of bear attacks in the country this year, as bear incidents rise to unprecedented levels. From April through November this year, 66 people in the prefecture have been attacked by a bear, resulting in four deaths.

In a rare move, the Ground Self-Defense Force was deployed in Akita Prefecture to assist with bear control measures following a request from the governor. Given the surge of attacks nationwide, rules were revised to allow riot police to shoot bears, something they were not permitted to do previously.

The number of victims in Akita was high in fiscal 2023, when 70 people were attacked, the highest in the nation, although there were no fatalities. Meanwhile, when beechnut harvests were good in 2024 and 2022, the numbers of people attacked were low, at 10 and six, respectively.

Since 2002, when the research center began recording the harvests, good harvests were also seen in the prefecture in 2005, 2013, 2015 and 2018. The harvests following these good years were poor without exception.