SAPPORO šC Each fall, supermarkets and restaurants around the country eagerly await the arrival of fresh autumn salmon from Hokkaido, with the roe from the fish being a prized delicacy.
But over the past two decades, the cost of salmon roe has surged dramatically ¡ª rising more than fivefold since 2005. Warmer ocean temperatures around Hokkaido have led to a sharp decline in autumn salmon populations, significantly tightening supply and pushing prices to record highs. And, so far, there is no sign that prices will come down anytime soon.
As of early October, 100 grams of autumn salmon roe in central Sapporo was selling for just under ?2,000.
Wholesale price trends reflect the same sharp increase. In 2005, the average annual wholesale price for salmon roe at Sapporo¡¯s Central Wholesale Market stood at around ?1,500 per kilogram. By 2008, it had doubled to reach the ?3,000 level, and climbed again to the ?4,000 level by 2016. Last year, it reached an average of ?7,836 per kilogram ¡ª more than five times higher than in 2005.
As of last month, the median wholesale price had exceeded ?10,000 per kilogram.
The price surge is largely driven by declining catches during the peak of the autumn salmon run. In Hokkaido, the prime season typically spans from late September through October.
Estimates from the Hokkaido Research Organization show that last year, 17.69 million autumn salmon returned to spawn in five areas surrounding the island. This year¡¯s forecast, however, is that only 11.41 million salmon will return ¡ª a 64.5% decline compared to last year. This would also be the lowest predicted return since the Heisei Era (1989-2019) began.
Most of this year¡¯s catch, about 7.7 million fish, is expected to come from the Sea of Okhotsk.
As of the end of September, about 3.17 million fish had been caught, a 47.7% decline compared to last year.
Salmon roe demand is expected to rise during the New Year¡¯s season, particularly for osechi ryšri (traditional New Year¡¯s dishes), raising concerns about the prolonged impact as the year-end and New Year¡¯s period approaches.
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