TAIPEI ¨C China is likely to launch military drills this week near Taiwan, using Taiwan President Lai Ching-te¡¯s upcoming national day speech as a pretext to pressure the island to accept its sovereignty claims, Taiwanese officials say.

China in May launched ¡°punishment¡± drills around Taiwan shortly after Lai¡¯s inauguration, in what Beijing said was a response to ¡°separatist acts,¡± sending up heavily armed warplanes and staging mock attacks as state media denounced newly inaugurated Lai.

The May drills were dubbed ¡°Joint Sword ¡ª 2024A¡± and drew concerns from capitals including Washington.

Lai will deliver a key speech on Thursday in a grand celebration in front of the presidential office in Taipei to mark the 113th birthday of the Republic of China, Taiwan¡¯s official name.

¡°Our assessment is that no matter what Lai says on Oct. 10, they might put a name on existing exercises and call it Joint Sword ¡ª 2024B. That¡¯s a possibility,¡± said a senior Taiwan security official, citing intelligence gathered by Taiwan and the government¡¯s assessments on China¡¯s likely moves.

¡°It¡¯s likely to be a pretext,¡± the official said.

In an internal security memo, a copy of which was reviewed by Reuters, Taiwan authorities say they believe Beijing might blame the possible drills on Lai¡¯s ¡°provocation¡± in his speech.

China has ¡°continuously tried to test the red lines of various countries, maximizing its gray-zone operations,¡± the memo said, referring to military moves that stop short of actual combat to test and pressure other militaries.

Both Taiwan and China¡¯s defense ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Taiwan Affairs Office also did not immediately respond to requests for comment

A Taipei-based diplomatic source said one thing that could hold back a military reaction by China to Lai¡¯s speech was the closeness of the U.S. presidential election and Beijing not wanting for Taiwan tensions to suddenly be put into the international spotlight so close to the vote.

¡°These days, China does not really need a pretext to hold war games around Taiwan. They can do them anytime they like,¡± the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the situation.

China detests Lai and his party as ¡°separatists¡± who refuse to recognize Beijing¡¯s position that democratically governed Taiwan is a part of China.

Lai and his ruling Democratic Progressive Party reject Beijing¡¯s sovereignty claims, saying only Taiwan¡¯s people can decide their future.