Few people outside France are paying closer attention to its election than Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni ¡ª and anyone assuming she and the National Rally leader Marine Le Pen would find common ground as right-wing populists would be wrong.

In fact, people familiar with Meloni¡¯s thinking say she is acutely conscious that, should Le Pen¡¯s party prevail on July 7 ¡ª even shy of an absolute majority in parliament ¡ª they would be uneasy allies at best. The Frenchwoman poses a challenge to the Italian¡¯s current status as the standard-bearer and darling of a new brand of conservatism trying to impose itself across the European Union.

Both women share the trait of wanting to rid themselves of far-right baggage, while holding opposing views on Russia and specific social issues like abortion ¡ª positions that aren¡¯t that easy to reconcile. Meloni has also tacked toward the center just as Europe has tilted rightward. She and French President Emmanuel Macron had found a way until recently to tolerate ¡ª or even grudgingly respect ¡ª each other.