Next five years to be hottest ever, likely crossing 1.5 C for a year, says WMO

WORLD / Science & Health

Next five years to be hottest ever, likely crossing 1.5 C for a year, says WMO

A southeast Greenland polar bear. With a 66% chance of temporarily reaching 1.5 C by 2027, 'it's the first time in history that it's more likely than not that we will exceed 1.5 C,' one climate expert said. | NASA OCEANS MELTING GREENLAND / VIA REUTERS

By Gloria Dickie
REUTERS

May 18, 2023

LONDON – For the first time ever, the most likely scenario for global temperatures is that they will breach 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming for at least a year within the next five years, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Wednesday.

Last year’s report by the agency put the odds of temporary warming by 1.5 C above preindustrial levels, a threshold set out for long-term average temperatures in the 2015 Paris Agreement, at about 50-50.

With a 66% chance of temporarily reaching 1.5 C by 2027, “it’s the first time in history that it’s more likely than not that we will exceed 1.5 C,” said Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at Britain’s Met Office Hadley Centre, who worked on the WMO’s latest Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update.