The Bank of Japan returns to the spotlight this week after it shocked global financial markets in December with a tweak to its stimulus program.

While all but one of 43 economists in a survey forecast the central bank to leave policy unchanged on Wednesday, many say they can¡¯t rule out more action.

That¡¯s partly because the BOJ¡¯s messaging has become less clear following its doubling of a cap on 10-year bond yields. Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda in the past has characterized such a move as a rate hike, but last month said it was aimed at improving the sustainability of its stimulus framework.

He¡¯ll step down in April, and speculation is building that the central bank will then move toward a normalization of policy.

Despite the decision to allow wider bond movements, pressure on the BOJ¡¯s yield curve control framework has only increased since last month.

Japan¡¯s 10-year yield rose above the new ceiling of 0.5% Friday for the first time since the Dec. 20 gathering, prompting the BOJ to shell out ?3.2 trillion ($24.9 billion) on fixed-rate bond purchases to rein it in ¡ª a daily record.

Traders are now even more convinced that any change in the policy must be a surprise, making the January meeting a wild-card. Citigroup economists expect the bank to scrap its yield curve control entirely.

A local media report on Thursday said the central bank will assess the side effects of its large-scale monetary easing, fueling further speculative moves by investors.

Still, BOJ officials see little need to rush through another big move to improve bond market functioning, and policy makers should assess the impact of last month¡¯s yield adjustments for now, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg earlier this month.

New quarterly economic projections released along with a policy statement will also come under scrutiny. They¡¯re widely expected to show a higher outlook for prices in the coming fiscal years. Inflation data due on Friday may show acceleration too.

¡°To push back against market pressure for an earlier move to normalize policy, we think the BOJ could announce that it will carefully watch yen swap rates ¡ª in a new jawboning tactic,¡± Bloomberg senior economist Yuki Masujima said.

Elsewhere, Chinese data may reveal damage to the economy from COVID lockdowns, U.S. retail sales could show a further decline, and U.K. inflation is likely to slow. Central bankers in Malaysia and Indonesia are expected to hike rates, while Norway and Turkey are likely to hold, and Angola may cut.

The World Economic Forum will resume normal business with its first winter meetings in Davos, Switzerland, since before the pandemic.