Key consumer prices fell at a slightly slower pace in September but failed to log gains for a sixth straight month, with economists expecting worse to come over the coming months.

A gauge of prices excluding fresh food fell 0.3% from a year earlier, largely reflecting the impact of government travel subsidies, following a 0.4% drop in August, the internal affairs ministry reported Friday. Analysts had forecast a 0.4% decline.

The figures come ahead of a meeting next week in which the Bank of Japan will give its latest inflation forecasts. While the latest data may help ease concerns of a descent into longer-term deflation for the time being, additional factors are expected to weigh on prices from next month.

The COVID-19 pandemic has eliminated upward momentum in prices as the economy has suffered a record contraction, with restrictive measures weighing on consumption. Mounting job losses, falling wages and a slow recovery in spending are also likely to keep inflation weak.

Next week, the Bank of Japan is likely to consider slightly adjusting its inflation forecasts to reflect the short-term downward impact of the travel subsidies on prices, according to people familiar with the matter.

Even if the latest data doesn¡¯t ratchet up concerns, Japan is still close to a critical point where it could fall back into deflation, said Yuichi Kodama at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute.

¡°The impact of the Go To campaign isn¡¯t bad in itself, since it¡¯s helping push up consumer demand. And it¡¯s a decline of a particular category, so I don¡¯t think this particular point should raise deflation concerns,¡± he said.

Inflation is likely to weaken after October, when it loses the upward support of a sales tax increase a year ago.

Analysts forecast consumer prices will fall 0.6% in the October to December period.

Keeping credit lines open to companies remains the BOJ¡¯s priority, and the bank is sticking to its 2% target for inflation in the long term.

Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga is calling for lower mobile phone fees as part of his reform agenda, indicating that inflation isn¡¯t at the top of his agenda for now.

Inflation excluding energy and fresh food was flat, compared with a 0.1% drop forecast by analysts.

Overall prices were also unchanged, in line with the analysts¡¯ forecast.

The government Go To Travel subsidies helped push down accommodation charges by 30%, which dragged the overall index down by minus 0.35 percentage point, a touch less than in August.

Deeper falls in electricity prices canceled out the impact of smaller drops in gasoline prices.