SINGAPORE ¨C Thai Beverage PLC has earned the title of the world¡¯s ¡°cheapest alcohol¡± pick at Goldman Sachs, with the Bangkok-based brewer now the worst performer in its consumer stocks coverage, although analysts say a turnaround in its operations next year will give the stock a nice lift.
Since losing 7.3 billion Singapore dollars ($5.3 billion) this year, ThaiBev now trades at 14.9 times future earnings ¡ª below its 10-year average ¡ª while the MSCI World Beverages Index trades at 20.1 times, according to compiled data.
¡°The stock has reached its bottom, both on earnings and valuation,¡± June Zhu and Manik Mahajan, analysts at Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte wrote in a report last week. ¡°FY19 will mark the start of the turnaround¡± due to forecast improvements in farm incomes, wages and election spending.
The company¡¯s management is anticipating that higher agricultural income in Thailand and a strategy to replace short-term debt with long-term loans will improve finances next year.
Sanford C. Bernstein analysts Euan McLeish and Yan Li upgraded the stock from underperform to market-perform Friday, saying the stock¡¯s valuation ¡°now fairly reflects the weak domestic outlook and the lack of upside from the recent acquisitions.¡±
Goldman¡¯s Zhu, who last week reiterated her buy rating on the stock from July 30, says investors should monitor the company¡¯s progress on sales volume, revenue growth at its Vietnamese unit, cost controls and debt management. Even so, she cut the target price to SG$0.74 from SG$0.94 on Wednesday, citing a lack of visibility for the next six months.
Of 16 analysts covering the stock, only two brokerages have sell-equivalent ratings. Phillip Capital, which has a reduce rating, said on Aug. 17 that it¡¯s still worried that weak disposable income might continue to weigh on prospects. JPMorgan¡¯s Kae Pornpunnarath has an underweight rating.
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