The good news is that it¡¯s been a great year for movies. The bad news is that, now, the battle for best picture will be bloodier than ever.

With such a wide field of acclaimed contenders, plenty of worthy films will be dealt a bad hand when the Oscar nominations are announced Jan. 23. Even today¡¯s self-imposed assignment to narrow the list to the 10 likeliest nominees proved a harrowing task; instead, I have hedged with an unlucky 13.

Ahead of the Golden Globes on Sunday, and the bellwether industry nominations next week from the producers¡¯ and actors¡¯ guilds, here are the current contenders with the most viable shot at a best-picture nomination, ranked in descending order according to their certainty.