CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts ¨C Shortly after the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, U.S. President Donald Trump praised the country¡¯s new rulers. Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro¡¯s vice president who assumed power after his arrest and transfer to the United States, was ¡°doing a great job,¡± Trump said, adding that ¡°oil is starting to flow and large amounts of money, unseen for many years, will soon be greatly helping the people of Venezuela.¡±
Judging by Trump¡¯s pronouncements, Venezuela ought to be booming. And by Trump¡¯s favorite metric, it is: oil production has increased, albeit modestly, from 908,000 barrels per day in late 2025 to 1.03 million in April. With the U.S. effectively overseeing the country¡¯s oil revenues, Venezuelan crude ¡ª once sold at steep discounts under American sanctions ¡ª is now priced much closer to the unusually high international benchmarks, courtesy of the 51³Ô¹ÏÍø. In theory, Venezuela should be awash in dollars, but is it?
The macroeconomic data tell a radically different story than the triumphalist narrative coming out of Caracas and Washington. Since Maduro¡¯s removal, the official exchange rate has depreciated by more than 70%. Over the same period, the parallel-market price of the dollar has climbed from 585 Venezuelan bolivars to more than 730?bolivars ¡ª a 32% premium over the official rate.
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