The predawn operation that removed longtime Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from power in Caracas this past weekend sent shockwaves through capitals worldwide.

Within hours, foreign-policy analysts began asking: Does U.S. President Donald Trump¡¯s Venezuelan gambit signal U.S. tolerance for forcible regime change that Beijing might interpret as precedent for ¡°reunifying¡± Taiwan?

The answer is, it¡¯s complicated. Understanding why requires grappling with fundamental asymmetries that make Venezuela a calculated risk and Taiwan an existential wager China cannot afford to lose.