One year ago, businesses ¡ª especially CEOs ¡ª were optimistic about the U.S. economy in 2025, expecting lower taxes and more market-friendly policies from an incoming U.S. President Donald Trump. Then came April 2, Liberation Day. The market fell, uncertainty rose and affordability became a more acute concern. Meanwhile, the labor market continued to weaken, as immigration restrictions led to a slower-growing workforce and labor shortages in some sectors.
Nonetheless, the U.S. economy persisted. In the lead-up to the end of the year, the market rose more than 15% and gross domestic product growth in the third quarter was an unexpectedly robust 4.3%. What will 2026 be like? There are reasons to be optimistic, as many were a year ago. Here are five of them.
Consumers will have more money. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects Americans to receive up to $150 billion in tax refunds in the coming months as a result of the budget law the president signed last summer. Higher earners who spend a smaller share of their income will feel a bigger impact, with the notable exception of people who earn tipped income.
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