SEOUL ¨C All eyes were on Seoul, South Korea, recently as Chinese President Xi Jinping met with U.S. President Donald Trump to negotiate a framework for managing their economic relationship. But, to understand China¡¯s economic prospects, another recent meeting also warrants attention: the Fourth Plenary Session of the Communist Party of China, where China¡¯s leaders adopted the CPC¡¯s recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development (2026-30).
The Fourth Plenum did not deliver the leadership overhaul that some expected. Beyond the appointment of Zhang Shengmin as the second vice chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission ¡ª his predecessor He Weidong, along with 10 other officials, was recently expelled from the CPC ¡ª little of note took place on the personnel front. If anything, the meeting reaffirmed Xi¡¯s dominance, reinforcing expectations that he will seek a fourth five-year term in 2027.
China¡¯s economy has so far been coping relatively well with the Trump administration¡¯s increasingly hostile measures, including high tariffs and export controls on high-tech products. As noted in the communique issued at the Fourth Plenum, the CPC views the current Five-Year Plan as a success and expects China¡¯s gross domestic product per capita to be on a par with that of a ¡°mid-level developed country¡± by 2035.
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