NEW HAVEN, Connecticut ¨C French President Emmanuel Macron¡¯s decision to dissolve parliament and call a snap election, with voting beginning this Sunday, will divert the world¡¯s attention from another possible political earthquake. On Friday, Iranian voters will fill the vacancy left by President Ebrahim Raisi¡¯s death in a helicopter crash last month.
Even without the French vote, it would be tempting to trivialize the Iranian election¡¯s significance. After all, the Islamic Republic¡¯s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is a bitter opponent of the West, and Raisi, his loyal follower, won decisively in 2021. So, won¡¯t Khamenei simply manipulate the upcoming vote in a way that will assure the victory of another extreme hard-liner?
Not so fast. Iranian politics has taken a decisive turn in the three years between Raisi¡¯s rise and fall. Under Iran¡¯s constitution, candidates must be approved by the Council of Guardians, dominated by the clerical elite, before they can run for office. In 2021, Raisi owed his victory to the Council¡¯s refusal to award a place on the ballot to any strong opponent of Khamenei¡¯s militant anti-Westernism.
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