The data on carbon emissions in 2023 is only just in, but we can already predict where things will go this year.
Global greenhouse pollution hit a new record and increased 1.1% last year, the International Energy Agency reported recently. That was almost entirely a China story. Had the country held its carbon budget steady ¡ª or reduced it, in the manner of fellow high-income countries whose pollution is now at a 50-year low ¡ª then the world¡¯s climate footprint would have shrunk by about 155 million metric tons, instead of growing by 410 million tons.
If you want to know how this year is shaping up, Beijing¡¯s National People¡¯s Congress provided a sneak peek. Its recently announced 5% growth target doesn¡¯t absolutely guarantee that global emissions will rise again in 2024. But it makes the path to avoiding that fate extraordinarily narrow.
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