¡°Amid the emergence of one geopolitical risk after another, Trump becoming president again is the biggest geopolitical risk of all.¡±

So said a recent lunch companion of mine, a manager at an automobile manufacturer. Donald Trump recently announced that, if he becomes the American president again, he would apply an automatic 10% tariff on all U.S. imports. The previous Trump administration attempted to impose substantial tariffs on Japanese automobiles ¡ª a move that was halted by the Abe administration. My companion was already bracing himself for the possibility that, if re-elected, Trump would recklessly push through similar tariffs.

Within the government, some have voiced concern that Trump might attempt to collect exorbitant ¡°protection fees¡± from American allies. The previous Trump administration attempted to quintuple the South Korean government¡¯s financial contribution toward maintaining the U.S. military presence in its country and quadruple Japan¡¯s.