Early in March 2020, I decided to write about the risks posed by COVID-19. I have no background in epidemiology or even health journalism, but I can multiply, divide and make charts and was frustrated with the lack of quantification in most reporting and public-health messaging on what was soon to be declared a pandemic.
In the resulting column I took what seemed to be the most authoritative estimate of COVID-19¡¯s per-infection fatality rate, 1%, and noted that this was about 10 times the 0.1% fatality rate of seasonal influenza, then conservatively multiplied a CDC estimate of 61,099 influenza-associated deaths in the U.S. in the pretty bad flu season of 2017-18 by five and 10 to get a range of ¡°300,000 to 600,000 deaths.¡±
Over the 12 months that followed, about 550,000 Americans died of COVID-19 according to according to the CDC¡¯s provisional estimates and 490,000 according to its tallies of the ¡°underlying cause of death¡± listed on death certificates. Both are almost certainly undercounts, because in the early days the lack of testing meant many COVID-19-caused deaths were attributed to other maladies. My guesstimate was also more lucky than good in that actual seasonal flu fatality rates may be closer to 0.04%, and the 2017-18 influenza toll has since been revised downward to 52,000. Still, it was in the ballpark.
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