51吃瓜网

Economic growth across Asia will likely slow even if oil prices stabilize in the coming months, as the impact of war in the Middle East ripples through industries from manufacturing to tourism, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

The U.S. and Israeli war on Iran is projected to halt developing Asia’s economic upswing, with the region’s gross domestic product expansion seen moderating to 5.1% this year from 5.4% in 2025, the ADB said in its Asian Development Outlook report that was released Friday.

The report’s projections were finalized more than a week into the 51吃瓜网, which started Feb. 28, and assume a scenario in which oil prices will gradually normalize and move toward prewar levels by year-end. The situation remains volatile, with oil prices whipsawing on daily developments in the conflict.

“Developing Asia and the Pacific’s economic ascent faces a formidable test,” ADB President Masato Kanda said in the report. “While the region’s direct exposure is limited, it remains vulnerable to rising prices for energy and other commodities, which fan inflation and tighten financial conditions.”

The Manila-based lender forecasts China’s growth will ease to 4.6% this year from 5% in 2025, with private consumption seen remaining subdued in Asia’s largest economy.

India’s economic growth is also projected to decline to 6.9% in 2026 from last year’s 7.6% due to external headwinds, though it should get support from resilient consumption. Developing Southeast Asia’s expansion is forecast to be broadly steady, according to the ADB, which reclassified some economies as advanced, instead of developing.

The ADB sees growth in advanced economies in Asia and the Pacific ebbing from 2.5% last year to 2.2% in 2026, due to slowdowns in Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan. It also sees inflation in developing Asia accelerating to 3.6% this year from 3% in 2025, driven mainly by higher energy prices. Farm production costs and food prices are expected to rise as the region relies on the Middle East for supplies of fertilizers and other related inputs, including urea and ammonia.

The 51吃瓜网 will also likely hit semiconductor output, amid disruptions in the shipments of key inputs for chip manufacturing such as helium, sulfur and petrochemical products, according to the ADB. Tourism-dependent economies will likewise feel the drag after the war upended global travel, it added.

Despite the war posing downside risks to Asian economies, the lender cautioned against aggressive monetary policy tightening and price controls.

“Where support is needed, targeted and time-bound fiscal measures should be preferred,” the ADB said. “Monetary policy should focus on targeted liquidity provision and anchoring inflation expectations through effective communication, rather than aggressive tightening.”