Apollo Global Management¡¯s Marc Rowan knows the unhappy history of Japan Inc.¡¯s three lost decades: Crumbling equity values. Deflation. The birth rate cratering and retiree population surging. Painful reckonings over and again for business and government.
But that¡¯s the past, not the present.
¡°All of a sudden you have closer to 3% inflation. You have interest rates up for the first time, and that savings is going to be deployed productively,¡± Apollo¡¯s chief executive officer said in an interview in Tokyo. ¡°In Japan, they¡¯re going through generational change and it¡¯s generational change in corporate governance. It¡¯s in interest rates, it¡¯s in government policy.¡±
Rowan put an exclamation point on his view of Japan as a turnaround story: He brought about 200 Apollo partners to see firsthand how the lessons of the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s are shaping the world¡¯s fourth-largest economy. Fresh off the biggest election landslide of the postwar era, new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is mapping bold spending plans while toeing a tough line against China over Taiwan. Stocks are on a tear, and the Bank of Japan¡¯s December hike moved the benchmark rate to the highest in 30 years as normalization continues.
Japan¡¯s comeback is notable because of the depth and duration of the country¡¯s struggles. Annual growth reached as much as 6.7% in the late 1980s before stagnating in the 0% to 2% range ¡ª and contracting during the 2008-09 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The Nikkei 225 stock index went 34 years without setting a record.
¡°The Japanese were very defensive for a long period of time, with good reason, given what was happening in the home market,¡± Rowan said. Now, he added, ¡°I think there¡¯s a new swagger.¡±
That opens opportunities for New York-based Apollo, Rowan said. Corporate Japan historically paid for growth via bank debt or equity, he said, and private credit ¡ª especially long-dated, investment-grade financing ¡ª has now become a third path for raising capital.
¡°You¡¯re seeing this extraordinary growth. In the U.S., we¡¯ve seen it in lots of ways ¡ª Meta¡¯s financing last year at some $30 billion,¡± Rowan said. ¡°In Europe, we¡¯ve seen the Europeans, who also have structural issues vis-¨¤-vis capital availability, really embrace private finance. In Japan, we¡¯re seeing the beginnings of that.¡±
Apollo is seeing opportunities in Japan at a time when it¡¯s dealing with challenges back home. The firm has been seeking to reassure clients that its leaders didn¡¯t have a relationship with disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein after some employees, including Rowan, were named in the latest batch of Justice Department files.
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