Most Bank of Japan watchers judge that Gov. Kazuo Ueda and his colleagues have been slow in ratcheting up interest rates, and expect the next move still to be several months away in their base case scenarios.
The X-factor in Bloomberg¡¯s survey of 52 economists is the exchange rate, with a tumbling yen seen as potentially forcing the BOJ into faster action. A weaker currency would add to price pressures in a nation that¡¯s already seen inflation averaging above its 2% target in the past four calendar years now.
All the respondents predict that policymakers will keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75% at the next BOJ gathering on Jan. 22 to 23. The most popular timing for the next hike is July, by a wide margin, with 48% of economists picking that month. The April and June meetings each got 17%.
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