China is no longer set to eclipse the U.S. as the world¡¯s biggest economy soon, and it may never consistently pull ahead to claim the top spot as the nation¡¯s confidence slump becomes more entrenched.
That¡¯s according to Bloomberg Economics, which now forecasts it will take until the mid-2040s for China¡¯s gross domestic product to exceed that of the U.S. ¡ª and even then, it will happen by ¡°only a small margin¡± before ¡°falling back behind.¡± Before the pandemic, they expected China to take and hold pole position as early as the start of next decade.
¡°China is down-shifting onto a slower growth path sooner than we expected,¡± the Bloomberg Economists wrote in a Tuesday research note. ¡°The post-COVID rebound has run out of steam, reflecting a deepening property slump and fading confidence in Beijing¡¯s management of the economy. Weak confidence risks becoming entrenched ¡ª resulting in an enduring drag on growth potential.¡±
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